Michael A.S. Guth Resume

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Canyon College

Michael A.S. Guth, PhD, JD, MS, BA
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Biographical Information

Education:

J.D., Summa Cum Laude, College of Law, Dec. 1997, University of Tennessee, Knoxville.

Order of the Coif; rank 2nd out of class of 139; Hunton and Williams prize for the best brief written by a first- year law student at UT in 1995; specialized courses on securities and class action litigation, and drafting contracts for asset-backed securities transactions. Licensed to practice law (Tennessee), May 1, 1998; Eastern District of Tennessee, Oct. 13, 1999. Practice interests: business transactions, mergers and acquisitions, strategic planning.

Ph.D., Financial Economics, March 1988, University of Tennessee, Knoxville.
M.S., (Mathematical Economics), June 1986, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena.
B.A., Economics/Space Physics - minor, May 1982, Rice University, Houston, Texas.

PROFESSIONAL EXPERIENCE:

Risk Management Consulting, Oak Ridge, TN, (1997 – present)
Managing Director

Representative Clients: NOVA Southeastern University; Tusculum College, Knoxville, TN; Troy State University; Saint Leo University; Touro University; University of Wisconsin at Whitewater; Sullivan University; Capella University; Hawaii Pacific University; Thomas Edison State College; Canyon College, Marylhurst College, Charter Oak State College.

(1) Health Care Economics. Charter Oak State College, CT, (Oct. 2004 – Dec. 2004). Textbook Health Economics: Theories, Insights, and Industry Studies, 3rd ed., Santerre, Rexford E., University of Connecticut, Neun, Stephen P., Utica College, ISBN: 0-324-17186-2 © 2004

(2) Health Care Finance. Charter Oak State College, CT, (Oct. 2004 – Dec. 2004). Textbook Health Finance: Basic Tools for Nonfinancial Managers, Baker, Judith J. and R. W. Baker, originally published by Aspen Publishers in 2000 and reprinted with © 2004 by Bartlett and Jones Publishing.

(3) Managerial Decision Analysis. Marylhurst College, OR, (Sept. 2004 – Nov. 2004). Textbook: Decision Analysis for Management Judgment, 3rd edition, Goodwin and Wright, published by John Wiley.

(4) Corporate Training. Undergraduate on-line degree program in Human Resources, Sullivan University, (Jan. 2003 – March 2003). Fundamentals of corporate staffing and recruiting, and Human Resources training. Students are exposed to what goes on in the corporate world relative to training through articles published by the American Society for Training and Development.

(5) Managerial Economics. Huizenga College of Business, NOVA Southeastern University, Ft. Lauderdale, Florida (Apr 2002 – October 2002); Saint Leo University (Oct. – Dec. 2002). Supervised 20 advanced MBA students in two simultaneous on-line courses in Managerial Economics. Course topics include managerial and employee incentives, organizational architecture, Pareto efficiency, tax incentives for independent contractors, the risk-reward system, the performance evaluation system, and economic strategies to create and capture value with the Internet. Taught a total of three sections of this course over two academic terms for NOVA. Textbook: Brickley, Smith, Zimmerman.

Hawaii Pacific University (Jan. 2003 – May 2003); taught two undergraduate courses on-line using the WebCT platform. Textbook: Mansfield et al., Managerial Economics, 5th ed.

Marylhurst College (Sept. 2004 – Nov. 2004); taught on-line MBA course using the Brickley, Smith, Zimmerman textbook.

(6) Accounting and Financial Management, Capella University, on-line course in the Organizational Management Ph.D. program, Summer 2002. Shadow/observe. Textbook: Gallagher & Andrew, Financial Management.

(7) Managerial Finance, Saint Leo University Center for On-Line Education, Fall 2002 term. Supervise 31 adult-learner undergraduate students in topics including financial statement analysis, time value of money, calculation of return on equity and return on total assets, additional funds needed, capital budgeting, and project finance. In the Fall II 2002 term, approximately one-third of the class (of 30 students) wrote on their student evaluations that I was the best professor they had ever had. Text: Brigham & Houston, Fundamentals of Financial Management.

Hawaii Pacific University on-line (Spring 2004). Taught this on-line course twice at the undergraduate level. Text: Ross, Westerfield, Jordan, Essentials of Corporate Finance.

(8) Economic Environment, Tusculum College, Knoxville, Tennessee. This advanced undergraduate course combines microeconomics and macroeconomics. This course is taught in ground-based classes over an accelerated six-week format with four-hour lectures one weekday evening per week, Sept. 11 - Oct. 16, 2002. (15 students); Dec. 2002 – Feb. 2003 (8 students). Students completed approximately 15 exams during the accelerated term. Text: Mings and Marlin, The Study of Economics. The course format has been changed to nine weeks beginning in the summer of 2003. The textbook will change probably to Mankiw’s Principles of Economics.

(9) Introduction to Macroeconomics. Taught the introductory macroeconomics course on-line to undergraduate students enrolled the University College at Troy State University, Fall 2002 term, (32 students); and Spring I 2003 term, (15 students). This course is taught in the BlackBoard platform. Scheduled to repeat this course each term of 2003. Text: Gottheil’s Principles of Economics.

Thomas Edison State College on-line (Spring 2003). Text: Greg Mankiw’s Principles of Macroeconomics.

(10) Business Law, Troy State University on-line undergraduate course; January 2003 term, (55 students). Scheduled to repeat this course each term of 2003. Text: Anderson’s Business Law by Twoomey, Jennings, and Fox. During the midterm exam week, a student posted the following message to the discussion board: "I've learned more in three weeks than most lawyers do in three years of law school!"

Sullivan University, (March 2003 – May 2003). Schedule to teach this course using the text Brown, Gordon W. and Paul A. Sukys, Business Law with UCC Applications, 10th Edition. Glencoe McGraw-Hill , New York (2000).

(11) Capital Budgeting, On-line MBA program, Univ. of Wisconsin at Whitewater (Summer 2003). Course topics will include net working capital requirement for a project; evaluating growth assumptions; forecasting future cash flows; calculating a firm’s cost of capital; impact of inflation, depreciation, and taxes on an investment, estimate the free cash flows from a project; calculate the terminal and salvage values of the project; net present value; internal rate of return; calculate a risk-adjusted discount rate through comparables and through the weighted-average cost of capital and adjusted present value methods; and value projects with risky cash flows by discounting the expected cash flows at the risk-adjusted discount rate. I designed the course syllabus, reading assignments, case studies, and exams for this course. I had textbook specially created for this course using a subset of chapters from Block and Hirt’s Foundations of Financial Management, 10th ed.

(12) Budget Analysis, Sullivan University, on-line (March 2003 – June 2003). This course is offered as a primer for beginning human resource managers and other beginning and middle managers to provide the basic competencies needed in the development, implementation, and management of their portion of corporate budgets. The course provides a review and introduction to the basic theories and management techniques needed for everyday budgeting situations. A varied and all-inclusive introductory approach is taken to familiarize the student with such budgeting systems as zero-based-budgeting, PPBS budgeting and line item budgeting (4 qtr. hrs.). I selected a professional book used to train accountants for the CPA exam as the course textbook, and I designed this course. Text: MODERN BUDGETING FOR PROFIT, PLANNING, AND CONTROL by Jae Shim et al

(13) Business Policy / Business Strategy, Sullivan University, (March 2003 – May 2003). Specific problems involved in the forming of consistent business policies and maintaining an efficient organization are discussed. Actual cases are used for discussions and preparation of reports for executive decision making. The students taking this class are required to have completed business courses prerequisites in management, marketing, accounting and financial management. Text: Strategic Management, 13th ed., by Thompson and Strickland, McGraw-Hill/Irwin.

(14) Money and Banking, Troy State University – Montgomery on-line (Spring 2003), advanced economics undergraduate course. Text: MONEY, BANKING, AND FINANCIAL MARKETS by Roger LeRoy Miller and David VanHoose.

(15) Insurance (and Risk Management), Troy State University – Montgomery on-line (Spring 2003), advanced finance undergraduate course. Text: PRINCIPLES OF RISK MANAGEMENT AND INSURANCE, 8TH ED. by George E. Rejda.

(16) Investments, Troy State University – Montgomery on-line (Spring 2003), advanced finance undergraduate course. Text: PRACTICAL INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT by Robert Strong.

(17) Managerial Accounting, Northern Arizona University MBA program on-line (Summer 2003), graduate-level managerial accounting course. Text: Garrison and Noreen.

(18) Comparative Politics, Canyon College. Taught this undergraduate course numerous times in an asynchronous environment.

Currently teach online doctoral research courses for North Central University, Arizona, in allied business areas. Also teach undergraduate Criminal Justice Administration.

(19) Juvenile Delinquency, North Central University, taught this undergraduate course in an asynchronous environment.

Doctoral Dissertation Mentoring and Advising. Currently advise two doctoral students in Touro University’s on-line Ph.D. programs in business. Dissertation topics: (1) the merger and acquisition premium for acquiring firms in the pharmaceutical industry; (2) homeowner’s insurance as an investment using prospect theory.

ELECTRIC POWER AND NATURAL GAS INDUSTRY CONSULTING

Representative Clients: Tennessee Valley Authority, PG&E Energy Trading, Oklahoma Gas and Electric, General Electric Power Systems, Petroleum Inst. of Research Associates, Progress Energy.

Manager, Quantitative Risk Management, Progress Energy

Supervised, mentored, and recruited a staff of ten including two part-time doctoral students in applied math, two part-time MBA students engaged in independent study for course credit (merger and acquisitions, asset valuation), and coordinated a research project with North Carolina State University in meteorology (forecasting extreme summertime temperatures) with two graduate students and a professor.
Supervised group responsible for producing forward curves used for marking-to-market of the trading floor portfolio as well as long-term investment deals involving the construction of merchant power plants.
Calculated Value-at-Risk for power and gas trading.
Led a “paper” trading initiative for internal training of Middle Office staff and for lessons learned experience.
Provided quantitative support to traders and marketers by evaluating proposed trades, suggesting new trades based on market conditions, and developing risk management strategies. Calculated the value of transmission rights linking the Carolinas to Southern Company as a spread option.
Hosted “lunch and learn” seminars to foster communications between the Front and Middle Offices: “How to Calculate Value-at-Risk Starting with a Blank Sheet of Paper,” “Trading Strategies Based on September and October Power Forward Prices,” “A Proposal for Financial Swap Trading in the Hourly Market,” “A Comparison of the Asset Manager’s Valuation and the Middle Office’s Mark to Market for the Rowan 3 Plant.”

Invited speaker at the EPRI 13th Price and Load Forecasting Symposium, Nashville, TN, Nov. 13-15, 2001. Topics: “Why Are the Forward Markets So Dumb?,” “The Benefits of Accurately Determining Electricity Price Distributions: Better Risk Metrics; More Profitable Trades,” “Is the Internet Economy Altering the Traditional Relationship Between Electricity Demand and Economic Growth?”

European Power Markets, PIRA.

For a top ten U.S. power marketing firm, current prepared a detailed proprietary assessment of the power trading opportunities in Germany, Switzerland, Italy, the Netherlands, and Spain.

Senior Portfolio Risk Manager and In-House Counsel, General Electric.

Analyzed the financial risks associated with General Electric’s portfolio of long-term service agreements for maintenance and repairs of gas turbine and combined-cycle generating plants.
Developed expertise on the statistical foundations of GE’s availability guarantees (92% - 98%) included in these maintenance contracts.

Director of the Middle Office, PG&E Energy Trading:

Directed the financial trading control department of PG&E’s unregulated power trading floor.
Supervised staff in the calculation of daily profit and losses and Value-at-Risk (VaR) for the entire electricity portfolio.
Also supervised staff in the construction and updating of forward curves used for marking-to-market.
Proposed the company migrate from using Daily VaR to "Holding Period VaR" in its reports to senior management.
Placed ad on the Internet to hire additional staff, sifted through 70+ resumes in response, and conducted and coordinated phone and in-person interviews.
Provided risk management perspective on deals originated by marketers.

External Liaison, TVA:

Organized speakers for a full-day workshop sponsored by TVA plus three sessions for the EPRI conference on Innovative Pricing in Washington, D.C., June 1998. Served as a session chair and speaker at the conference.
Organized sessions for the DistribuTech conference in San Diego, Feb. 1999.
Served as external liaison between utility's trading floor and Wall Street investment banks.

Structured Finance, TVA:

Served as a one-person structured finance desk for TVA’s power trading floor.
Delivered in-house training seminars on Asian (average price) options, binary options, spread options, and hybrid binary-Asian options on electricity.
Determined the agency’s tolerance for risk and helped develop risk management policies and procedures, including appropriate trading limits, consistent with those preferences.
Persevered in helping to change institutional attitudes and the organizational culture.
Consulted on hedging strategies, execution of structured finance and trading strategies, option evaluation, forward curve analysis, and portfolio management.
Determined fair value of options on electricity using a modified Black-Scholes formula and a separate contingent claims model.
Designed and wrote an expert system that gives legal advice about the consequences of curtailing power under various sales contracts.
Using the SAVA Risk Management software and broker quotes for physical delivery up to eight months out, generated forward curves for various regional markets that could be used for marking to market.
Performed generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH) regressions on six years of daily price data for the 5x16 electricity product taking account of both long term and short-term determinants of prices.

Subcontractor, Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN, (1992 - 1994, Summer 1995), Senior Risk Analyst

Developed business strategies to privatize some of the radioactive waste processing activities at ORNL with an estimated cost savings to taxpayers > $400 million.
Proposed terms for a licensing agreement for private firms to use government facilities and land for processing transuranic waste.
Served as co-editor of the Environmental Restoration Monitoring and Assessment Report for ORNL (1994), with responsibility for editing section on human health and ecological risk assessment.
Received two letters of commendation from clients for consistently preparing deliverables ahead of schedule, keeping abreast of the latest programmatic developments, and suggesting a streamlined approach to environmental program documents that would lead to cost savings.

Credit Suisse First Boston, Frankfurt and London, (1991 - 1992)
Research Manager (Asst. Vice President level)

In Frankfurt, sat at the equity option trading desk to learn how traders use option parameters (delta, gamma, sigma) to manage their positions.
Statistically tested three forms of arbitrage with subsets of stocks from the German DAX index.
In London, covered the British government bond trading desk for the monthly fixed income report. Provided trading and sales quantitative support on topics ranging from immunized portfolios, to accelerated binomial approximations, to statistical evidence on the correlations between European financial markets.
Met with clients to explain hedging principles and the various costs of alternative hedging strategies to manage portfolio risk.
Examined the time scale factor underpinnings of the Olsen & Associates foreign exchange forecasting model, which has been yielding 70% accurate 3-month exchange forecasts.
Audited proprietary trading desk computations for the fair value of an option on the spread between two assets, e.g., German and French government bonds.

Deutsche Asset Management, Deutsche Bank Group, Frankfurt, (1989 - 1991)
Quantitative Research Manager

Prepared report on long-term (2-3 year) options with stochastic volatilities and interest rates. Collaborated on a European Tactical Asset Allocation model designed for market timing between 12 European stock markets. Using a market return forecasting rule developed internally at Deutsche Bank, this model yielded monthly portfolio weightings for the percentage of funds to be allocated to France, Germany, U.K., Switzerland, etc.
Answered technical questions on marketing calls to clients for passive fund and other quantitative asset management products.
Developed and implemented hedging strategies to minimize portfolio risks.
Developed econometric models to explain German and French government bond prices and the correlations between bond portfolios.

Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN, (1985 - 1989)

As Subcontractor, served as Principal Investigator for cost-benefit analysis of the Army's computerized ammunition ordering system; worked on team responsible for tasks including a manufacturing resources planning (MRP) and just in time (JIT) acquisition of resources, benefits derived from reducing clogs on unfilled orders, an econometric model explaining changes in ammunition inventories. Marketing - tracked large multi-year, multi-million dollar Requests for Proposals issued by federal agencies. Served as proposal manager and marketed the company's technical capabilities and products.

As U. S. Department of Energy Postdoctoral Research Fellow, led team to develop "proof of principle" and then working prototype expert system for the Joint Theater Level Simulation war gaming model. Also studied artificial intelligence algorithms for reactor control and preventive maintenance in the utility industry. Developed small prototype expert system to diagnose problems in the heat exchanger/core interface of a pressurized water reactor. (This work was published in the journal NUCLEAR ENGINEERING AND DESIGN.)

As Graduate Research Assistant, studied uncertainty paradigms for the inference engine of an expert system for the HERMIES robot, which is designed to perform cleanup activities in utility plants in areas too hazardous for humans. This expert system design work led to a series of publications on Dempster-Shafer theory and fuzzy logic. Developed applied mathematical models for energy production and energy commodity price fluctuations using optimal control theory and stochastic calculus.

Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, CA, (1982 - 1984)
Economist and Graduate Research Assistant

Wrote reports on the role of hydrogen in meeting national energy demands, solar energy market penetration, and computer simulations of demand load curves and peak time consumption for electric utilities in the U.S. Southwest.

SELECTED PUBLICATIONS

“Weather Research for Trading Profits,” The Risk Desk, May 2002.

“Research Agenda for 2002: Part III,” The Risk Desk, April 2002.

“Empirical Tests of May Spot Prices: A Special Trading Strategy Analysis,” The Desk (March 15, 2002).

“Research Agenda for 2002: Part II,” The Risk Desk, March 2002.

“Research Agenda for 2002: Part I,” The Risk Desk, Feb. 2002.

“Futures, Futures, and TVA,” The Desk (Feb. 22, 2002).

“Benefits of Accurately Determining Electricity Price Distributions: Better Risk Metrics, Beating the Market on Trades,” The Risk Desk, Jan. 2002.

“The Mythical Logic of Power Futures Markets,” The Risk Desk, Dec. 2001.

“Electricity Demand in the Digital Economy,” Energy and Power Risk Management, Nov. 2001.

“Availability Guarantees on Combined-Cycle Plants,” Power Engineering, March 2001.

“Blowing Hot and Cold,” Energy and Power Risk Management, April 2000.

“An Expert System for Curtailing Power,” West Virginia Journal of Law and Technology (March 1999), available on-line at http://www.wvjolt.wvu.edu/Latest%20Issue/guth.html

“Anticipating Antitrust Concerns Nets M&A Success,” Electric, Light, and Power, October 1999.

“Let Us Do Our Job,” Energy and Power Risk Management, March 1999.

“How to Evaluate Electricity Options: Avoid Relying on Black-Scholes,” Electric, Light, and Power, Dec.1998.

“Value-at-Risk is Not Enough,” Energy and Power Risk Management, Nov. 1998.

“Expert Systems for Non-Experts,” Energy and Power Risk Management, Sept. 1998; (article pertains to legal consequences of curtailing power under various sales contracts).

“Drive to Compete May Result in Unexpected Legal Implications,” Energy Marketing, July-August 1998, pp. 8-15. Article based on talk “Jurassic Spark: Business Torts, Crimes, and Dinosaurs in Competitive Electricity Markets.”

Approximately 20 publications in peer-reviewed professional journals are not included in this list.

SPECULATIVE BEHAVIOR AND THE OPERATION OF COMPETITIVE MARKETS UNDER UNCERTAINTY (Ashgate Publishing, London, December 1994). The book contains chapter comments from a number of leading economics and finance academics including a former president of the American Economics Association and a Nobel Laureate.